Financial Insights Blog

U.S. Debt Rating Downgraded

August 10th, 2011 by bobbyp

 

After the market close on Friday, Standard and Poor’s (S&P)—one of the three major U.S. rating agencies—downgraded the U.S. government debt from AAA to AA+. This is actually a drop of less than one level within the S&P rating system. According to S&P, an obligor rated AAA has “extremely strong capacity to meet its financial commitments” while one of AA has “very strong capacity to meet its financial commitments” and differs from AAA obligors “only to a small degree.” Therefore, U.S. debt is still rated very strong. In addition, the two other major U.S. rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their highest ratings for U.S. federal debt. S&P kept the short-term rating of the United States at the top rating of A1+. Short-term money market instruments are rated on a different scale, but the status quo with respect to these ratings implies no impact to money market funds.

Since the first U.S. rating agency was established in the early 1900s, the U.S. government has not been downgraded. Frankly, a downgrade just sounds and feels bad. The word “downgrade” has similar negative connotations to words like “demotion” or “decline.” However, while this is the first time that the United States has been downgraded by a U.S. rating agency, it is not the first time that the United States has been downgraded. The United States was downgraded one level by China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating Company to A+ in November 2010 and by Germany’s Feri Rating Agency to AA in June 2011.

There is also much precedent for other AAA-rated sovereign nations seeing their debt downgraded. Japan lost its AAA rating in 1998 and Canada was downgraded in 1994—however, both successfully regained their AAA status at later dates. Japan lost its AAA status again in 2009. Though this downgrade feels unique and unprecedented, it has already happened relatively recently to the United States without much attention and to other sovereign nations in the past.

As investors, we need to take this downgrade as what it is—a change in status that does not meaningfully diminish the term “full faith and credit of the U.S. government.” In fact, the debt of the United States continues to be viewed as preeminently high quality. One measure of this is to examine the credit default swap market, which is similar to insurance that institutional investors can buy to protect their bonds in case of default. Even after the downgrade by S&P, the cost to “insure” against the default of the U.S. government is much lower than nearly every country in the world, including many AAA credits like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Therefore, even though U.S. debt does not still carry a full AAA rating, the market still views the U.S. government’s ability to meet its debt obligations as AAA worthy.

So, what does this all mean to the markets? S&P telegraphed their downgrade starting a couple of weeks ago while the debt ceiling debate was still ongoing. As a result, I believe that the markets have largely priced this downgrade news in. In addition, we have likely not seen the last of downgrades. Now that the United States has been downgraded, S&P will separately be reviewing government agencies and companies that rely heavily on U.S. government support—such as Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac—for potential changes in credit rating. That said, further downward price moves in the stock market are likely not attributable to the downgrade of U.S. debt, but rather escalating concerns around the European crisis and decelerating global economic growth. In a sense, the downgrade of U.S. debt is not nearly as important to the market as is the potential downshift in the strength of the global economic recovery.

While we have to acknowledge that the risks for a double-dip recession have been creeping up as of late, I continue to believe that it is extremely unlikely. The market appears to be pricing in a far greater likelihood for a return to recession than the data actually indicates. As a result, stock valuations are cheap versus historical averages. The S&P 500 Index trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a measure of how much the market values a dollar’s worth of corporate earnings, is at 13 (the lowest since 1990) and the forward P/E ratio is 11 (same as March 2009 low).Essentially, the market is as cheap, or even cheaper, now than it was during the depths of the 2008-2009 recession.

The visceral, emotional reactions to this downgrade are normal, but I believe that the S&P rating downgrade is more disappointing than it is material for capital markets. While the market may react emotionally to the news over the short run, rational analysis will soon reveal that continued favorable economic fundamentals and attractive valuations point to potentially promising investment opportunities just around the corner. I believe that maintaining a cautious stance remains prudent, but systematic additions to risk at these levels will prove a wise investment as the year unfolds. As always, if you have questions, I encourage you to contact me.

Best regards,

Donald J. Miller, CEO, CFP®

LPL Registered Principal

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult me prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

An obligation rated ‘AAA’ has the highest rating assigned by Standard & Poor’s. The obligor’s capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is extremely strong.

The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower P/E ratio.

Credit rating is an assessment of the credit worthiness of individuals and corporations. It is based upon the history of borrowing and repayment, as well as the availability of assets and extent of liabilities.

Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

Tracking #786254 | (Exp.08/12)

Market Update – Weathering The Volatility

August 10th, 2011 by bobbyp

 

The first few days of August for the stock market have represented a rapid flight from risk. The third-quarter bounce for the economy, driven by the tight consensus of investors three weeks ago, has now been completely rejected by the capital markets which have turned lower, despite the fact that earnings remain robust for Corporate America. The market has also ignored several recent, solid assessments of the economy, especially the recently released employment report, which showed a welcomed gain of 154,000 jobs being created in the private sector for July. The uncertainty of the European debt crisis and intense debate on the U.S. debt ceiling precludes any material hope of fiscal or monetary stimulus before the next election. This lack of policy actions has increased the perceived risk in the markets that is causing investors to flee. In a sense, “all news has been bad news” as of late.

European issues are challenging, but not a crisis. The news flow makes it sound like Europe is flailing about trying to throw more money at a growing problem. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s statement this week—that the downside risks to growth have intensified and that they will let banks borrow as much as they need—had an air of desperation to them. But, I do not believe the situation is nearly as bad as the headlines make it seem. The likelihood of a Greece-like situation developing is remote for the market’s next perceived “problem child”: Italy. Unlike in Greece, substantial spending cuts are already well underway in Italy. Italy has already cut government workers, raised revenue by eliminating some tax breaks, and sold government assets, which is moving the country on a credible path to fiscal sustainability. In fact, in 2010, Italy reduced its deficit-to-GDP ratio by nearly a percentage point and has a lesser debt burden than does the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

To be sure, some recent economic data has been disappointing, notably the downward revision of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and the July ISM Purchasing Managers’ Survey which showed elements of manufacturing activity down near contraction levels of 50. However, it has not been all bad of late as retail sales continue to post strong advances, weekly unemployment claims dropped back to the all-important 400,000 level, housing starts showed modest signs of improvement, and employment accelerated dramatically in July relative to the previous two months. The bottom line is that the economic data is mixed, but not terrible. We still see below-average growth on tap, as we forecasted for this year, but we do not see a double-dip recession on the horizon.

With bond yields falling as investors flock to the safe-haven of Treasuries and major stock market averages now down about 10% from the recent highs, this may seem all too familiar. It is natural to wonder about how recent economic conditions compare to those of 2008 and if the market is foreshadowing that another crisis is on tap. The message from the markets is important, but in last summer’s soft spot, bond yields dropped to similar levels seen today and the stock market fell 15%, but there was no recession. Instead, we got a second-half market rally as clarity improved and investor sentiment returned. In our opinion, the summer of 2010 is the more relevant comparison for what lies ahead for this market as opposed to the recessionary period of 2008-2009.

While there is much to be worried about, I believe that the market’s concern is overdone and it is pricing in a far greater likelihood for a return to recession than the data actually indicates. Stock valuations are cheap on both a trailing and forward basis versus their historical averages. The S&P 500 Index trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a measure for how much the market values a dollar’s worth of corporate earnings, is at 13 (the lowest since 1990) and the forward P/E ratio is 11 (same as the March 2009 low). Essentially, the market is as cheap or even cheaper now than it was during the depths of the 2008-2009 recession. While valuations could compress further, the spring is already tightly coiled. A solid earnings season suggests the market is too bearish with the price it is putting on earnings.

But, do not forget what turned last summer’s market malaise into a double-digit second half rally for stocks: improving economic data, strong corporate earnings, emerging clarity from Europe, and above all, a market that was just too cheap to pass up the attention of investors. The bottom line is that the market has a blind eye to good news given the bearish-colored glasses it has been wearing as of late. It is my opinion that volatility will remain elevated, but the market’s emotional sell off will soon transition to a rational assessment of improving economic fundamentals and attractive valuations.

The economic and market recovery is now well into its second year from the March 2009 lows and as any parent can vividly recall, this market “toddler” is just going through an old-fashioned “terrible twos” temper tantrum. But, market slides are where great buying opportunities are born and this will be no different. I believe that maintaining a cautious stance is prudent, but systematic additions to risk at these levels will prove a wise investment as the year unfolds. As always, if you have questions, I encourage you to contact me.

Sincerely,

Donald J. Miller, CFP / Registered Principal

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult me prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower P/E ratio.

Credit rating is an assessment of the credit worthiness of individuals and corporations. It is based upon the history of borrowing and repayment, as well as the availability of assets and extent of liabilities.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The ISM index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

Tracking #751660 | (Exp.08/12)

LPL 2011 Mid-Year Outlook

July 21st, 2011 by bobbyp

Below is LPL’s commentary on the market and economy currently and their view on where we are headed for the second half of 2011.

LPL 2011 Mid-Year Outlook

June 2011 Market Commentary

June 16th, 2011 by Don Miller

I’m writing today to update you about some defensive portfolio changes we’ve made recently and to give you our thoughts about the state of global and domestic economies and the impact higher oil prices are having on them.

About two months ago we sold our commodity position because prices had spiked to an alarming level and we knew speculation was the primary culprit.  Since then our suspicions have been confirmed.  Seventy percent of oil purchased in the futures market is coming from non-users. 

While prices have retreated 10 to 15% they remain stubbornly high.  This, while economic data in May points to a significantly slowing U.S. economy.   While we know oil prices need to come down to prevent consumer spending and confidence from tanking even further, they remain stubborn.  In fact, while the stock market declined in the face of poor jobs and housing data, oil prices firmed and even rebounded slightly.  Fundamentally it makes no sense – unless you assume jobs, housing and consumer spending are not important to this relatively weak recovery and that a continuing U.S. recovery doesn’t matter to global growth. 

Now I’ll concede that China has recently surpassed the U.S. in oil consumption per year – while producing only half the goods and services that we do.  But, remember Alan Greenspan suggested that energy inefficiency is a prime characteristic of an emerging economy.  I don’t believe that emerging economies can stand on their own yet.  That time may be getting closer, but, it’s not here now. 

So if higher oil and food prices persist . . . in the face of weak housing and job markets . . . and if consumers have no equity to borrow against or can’t afford to (or are afraid to) take on more debt . . . and if politicians shut down the State and Federal Governments . . . and if that causes a default on U.S. debt obligations . . . or if spending cuts are too large and lead to job losses . . .  

Well, I think you can see why we are taking a little more defensive position.

Specifically we exchanged U.S. Domestic Equity positions specializing in mid-cap stocks and technology stocks for high-quality intermediate bond positions.  Essentially we are taking profits from outperforming areas and are investing into positions that will likely go up if the economy struggles.  We know this may create some capital gains, but many have capital loss carry forwards and most advisors believe that capital gains will likely be taxed at higher rates after 2012.  Most of you know I feel that managing risk and seeking to protect capital trumps most other considerations. 

What’s next?  We’re monitoring things closely.  We have a specific plan to deal with our portfolios – depending on whether fundamentals improve, stay the same, or get worse.  We’ll keep you posted. 

By the way, I believe oil prices will “give” before it’s too late and the global expansion will continue.  I’m just not willing to bet the house on it.  Thanks, once again, for your trust and confidence.  As always, call with questions.

Donald J. Miller, CEO, CFP®

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.  Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.  Bond values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price

LPL Market Commentary – Summertime Blues

June 9th, 2011 by Don Miller

Below is a third party commentary about current market conditions written by one of LPL’s Chief Economists, Jeffrey Kleintop.

Summertime Blues – LPL

April Market / Portfolio Update

April 27th, 2011 by Don Miller

I’m writing to update you on recent changes we’ve made to client portfolios, where we have discretion, and to discuss both our rationale and where we’re probably headed from here. 

As you know, last month we sold a defensive moderate allocation fund – partly to help protect against a nuclear and market meltdown and partly to reposition into an investment with more opportunity.  When it became apparent Japan’s situation was stabilizing, we completed the repositioning into a Recovery and Infrastructure position that invests in companies of all size, both in the U.S. and abroad.  While the rebuilding required because of Japan’s Tsunami and Australia’s Floods is an obvious reason to invest, one of our primary reasons may not be.  We wanted to increase exposure to the rapidly growing infrastructure of the developing markets without having such direct exposure to their somewhat volatile economies and companies.  Developing markets are projected to continue to lead a global recovery, but we felt a more conservative approach was warranted – especially given the headwinds we face today. 

Headwinds?  Yes, like speculators pushing oil prices higher and from diminished spending/stimulus by the U.S. Government as we battle over the speed and direction of getting our fiscal house in order. 

Which brings me to our second portfolio adjustment.  Last Friday we exchanged our commodity position for an ultra short term, high-quality bond position.  Because the commodity position was heavily weighted towards energy, we felt the timing was right to take profits and to safely rest, temporarily, on the sidelines.  What motivated us?  Goldman Sachs announced they were expecting about a 20% decline in the price of crude.  They felt speculation, not demand was pushing prices.  We all know consumers can’t afford gas at $4 or $5 per gallon and still have much left over for discretionary spending.  And when the Saudis cut production last week, citing a real drop in demand, we felt it was time to take profits until fundamentals were restored. 

So what’s next?  Fortunately prices are starting to fall.  It may take a month or longer, but we’ll be patient and re-enter our position when we have conviction that global demand is driving prices.  Ironically, prices are also being pressured by the spending cut battles and the recent S&P changes to the U.S. debt outlook – from stable to negative.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also recently suggested that U.S. deficits could pose a real threat to Global economic growth.  So headwinds  – yes -but ones that I hope blow us back on a more sustainable course of moderate prices and moderate growth.  Markets have been resilient because jobs and consumer spending are moving in the right direction.  If we can get prices and government spending into a more fundamentally sound place, things should continue to improve for everyone – including our Minnesota Twins!

Donald J. Miller, CEO, CFP®

LPL Registered Principal     

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Japan and Recent Market Developments

March 18th, 2011 by Don Miller

We are writing in regard to the recent market developments.  First and foremost our thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Japan.  Obviously the markets have reacted negatively to not only Japan’s challenges, but to the ongoing difficulties in Libya and Saudi Arabia.  In addition to current events, more potential problems lie on the horizon in Japan and elsewhere, but with that said, there are also positives brewing.  Oil is off its recent highs, which is likely to result in lower gas prices at the pump and last week’s economic data highlighted a 1% surge in February retail sales.  Yesterday the Federal Reserve Board commented on recent market events and reiterated that the recovery is on firm ground, labor market conditions continue to improve and that household spending and business investment are up.  They also plan to continue with “Quantitative Easing 2” as planned when initially announced in November.  

What are we doing to deal with these market conditions?  Where we have discretion, we have already sold one of our moderate allocation positions which has held up well during the last week.  By putting these monies in cash it will allow us to deal with both negative and positive market conditions.  We were planning on repositioning this in the near future anyways, but thought it prudent to conserve the profits we’ve made in the position over the past year.  As many of you know, we also sold a corporate bond position recently.  This was in anticipation of potentially higher interest rates and to lock in the gains made.  This position is also in cash currently.  Given the recent events, we believe having cash provides an opportunity to conserve capital now, and be opportunistic, as things improve going forward. 

In closing, we express our deepest condolences to the Japanese disaster victims and their families.  As a company, we plan to direct our annual gift toward relief agencies that will be helping to support the people of Japan.  As always, feel free to contact us with any questions. 

Jim

Oil, Unrest, Budget Deficits – Our Take

March 3rd, 2011 by bobbyp

I’m writing to you today to update you on world and political events and their impact on the markets.  I’m sure many of you have been watching the nightly news and are concerned about the unrest in the Middle East.  With the overthrow of Egypt’s Government and the fighting in Libya and other places, everyone is wondering what’s next and where oil prices are going. 

While difficult to watch, we view this situation as a positive in the long-run, if it results in greater democracy.  But, democracy and change are messy and change creates uncertainty.  Of course, markets hate uncertainty.  The situation could however be a real negative if Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) output is disrupted.  That’s the real concern behind the recent spike in the price of oil and at the pumps.  In our opinion however, the situation in Egypt is of far less concern than the protest in the OPEC-producing countries.  However, since Libya is only a 2% supplier to the global oil marketplace, and the Saudis have committed to cover any shortfalls the market experiences, we feel that the recent spikes are temporary.  So yes, the spike in oil, the jump in gold prices, the pull back in stocks, and the flight to safe havens in US Treasury are likely overreactions that we think will dissipate as the situation resolves itself.  We are watching carefully however because sustained oil and gas price hikes are probably the Achilles heel of the US consumer.  They are still vulnerable because their biggest asset – home equity – continues to be under pressure.

As if these concerns weren’t enough, we have another issue brewing that may be of more significance — aggressive spending cuts also known as “austerity mentality”.  The recently elected Republican majority in the House has declared they have “promised” and have been “mandated” to reduce federal spending by $100 billion in this current budget.  They, in fact, have passed a bill to cut spending by more than $60 billion. Last week Goldman Sachs predicted that if enacted, those cuts would reduce Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by half for the upcoming year — and “Tea Party” members have said $60 billion is not enough.  Because a measure to increase our debt ceiling to keep the US Government paying its bills is approaching, the House majority has more leverage on this issue than usual.  Do we think they will shut down the government?  No.  Are we worried that spending cuts could leave the economy and consumers vulnerable?  Yes, especially with such a weak housing market.  We support fiscal sanity and responsibility.  That shouldn’t surprise you coming from your financial advisor.  But, while we feel we’re moving in the right direction, we’re concerned about hitting damaging speed bumps if we go too fast.  Recently released fourth quarter GDP was reduced because of lower state and local spending.  We’re also concerned about the pressures to politicize the issue given an election year fast approaching.  In the end we believe our elected leaders will do what’s required because they’ll once again have no choice.  However contentious and uncertain times are ahead. 

So how are we positioning your portfolios?  Very carefully — while understanding markets will probably climb the wall of worry as global economies continue to expand. 

On a cheerier note, we have a couple points of pride to share with you.  For the third year in a row we have received the Five Star Best in Overall Client Satisfaction Wealth Manager Award.*   In addition we were listed by the National Association of Board Certified Advisor Practices — a nonprofit organization based in Colorado — as one of Minnesota’s Top Wealth Managers.**  Their special report was published in the February 18, 2011 edition of the Minneapolis Chicago Business Journal.  Of course we’re proud of the independent recognition, but rest assured we’re not resting on our laurels.  We strive hard every day to continue to earn your trust and confidence.  

In closing, you can count on us to keep in touch about noteworthy events — and to make adjustments to help manage both risk and opportunity.  Don’t be surprised by the positive events ahead of us.  Warren Buffet says that America’s best days are ahead. 

Thank you for allowing us to be of service to you.  We are here to answer any questions or concerns.

Don Miller

*Based on client satisfaction.  

**Based on 20 characteristics including years of experience, customer service model, risk and investment philosophy. 

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

December 2010 Market Commentary – Donald Miller

December 31st, 2010 by bobbyp

Dear Client,

I’m writing to update you on current events and portfolio changes we’ve recently completed. Mid-term elections have come and gone — finally. As expected there was a significant backlash by voters to what was deemed to be out-of-control spending. Clearly momentum has swung to the Republicans, but that also was expected. Mid-term elections usually go in favor of the minority party.

What wasn’t expected was the bipartisan support for additional stimulus — at least not so soon. The Democrats wanted to hold out for higher income and estate taxes on the wealthy and Republicans wanted to hold out for no more deficit spending or unemployment benefit extensions. But, the President has seemingly headed a bipartisan compromise to ensure that taxes will not be raised over the next two years and that unemployment benefits will be extended. With unemployment recently increasing to 9.8% it seems that all of our politicians have realized that a focus on job creation by giving Americans more money to spend is unfortunately probably necessary to ensure the US economy doesn’t slip backwards. The housing market is still going nowhere fast.

So what does this mean for your investments? Where are the opportunities? Where are the potholes? The most obvious expectation is for higher interest rates. Additional stimulus and deficit spending should lead to more growth and more borrowing. And the bond market, especially the US Treasury market, has seen higher yields and lower prices over the last couple of weeks. As you’ll recall we have already reduced bond holdings over the last couple of months. But, in anticipation of the tax relief/stimulus bill passing soon we have further reduced our exposure.

Recently we sold a global allocation position with large allocation to bonds and replaced it with three strategic managers. First, we focused on high-quality dividend paying US stocks. Profits should rise for US companies and there is an expectation that many of the recent dividend cuts will be restored in the year ahead. Next we hired an experienced global manager that has essentially no bonds. This manager has performed in line with our expectations in times of rising inflation and inflation expectations. Finally we added, to a lesser degree, a strategic bond manager with upside potential whether rates rise or fall. If a market trend or direction can be determined, then you can benefit from the trend – even if it’s trending down. Remember, where we have discretion, we have already begun to implement changes and where required are contacting you to do so.

In closing, I sincerely hope that you’ll have a wonderful holiday season and a prosperous New Year. It’s been a hectic and busy year for all of us and the markets. Tax law proposals and changes have compounded uncertainties and heightened volatility. In the year ahead, we expect a continuing economic recovery and hopefully smoother sailing. We, of course, will remain diligent and watch for potential storm clouds ahead.

Sincerely,

Donald J. Miller, CFP
LPL Registered Principal

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

October 2010 Market Commentary – Don Miller

October 13th, 2010 by bobbyp

September was a historic month for the US Stock Market — it was the best September in 71 years.  The fears of a double dip recession are fading and our clients’ accounts responded favorably.  After the significant declines in August, it should become obvious that being defensive is warranted, market timing is not.  The markets seem to be telling us that the short-term fundamentals are improving, but we know that significant long-term issues remain.  We expect this market to break out to the upside if November elections bring gridlock.  However, with the advent of the Tea Party, possibly siphoning off Republican votes, there is uncertainty.  We’re looking at reducing our bond positions by approximately 5% in the upcoming month.  We expect to increase our allocations to dividend paying stocks –essentially moving a little more towards neutral.  But, make no mistake, the mountain of debt accumulated by individuals and the US Government will continue to be a real drag on growth and employment for years to come.  It will also impact the real purchasing power of Americans as our deflation currency reflects our current debt situation as well.  So despite all the worlds Central Banks trying to keep interest rates near zero, we remain cautious.   Japan has had rates near zero for two decades and look where they’re at – struggling to say the least. 

As you probably know, we are continuing our series of premier educational events.  Our latest, in the Chicago area, was a combined client appreciation golf event and market update by Calamos.  We want to thank all the attendees for a fun and informative day and remind everyone that we’re posting the market update commentary by John Calamos, Sr. on our website at for your benefit and review.  They think it’s a Republican controlled house for sure. 

Finally, the latest in our educational series is scheduled for the Twin Cities on Thursday, October 21 at the Edinburgh USA Golf Club Ballroom.  Titled “Premier education.  Practical application.”  The event features speakers from PIMCO Global Asset Management and US Bank.  PIMCO will discuss the “new normal” economy.  We all know where we’ve been, but this widely respected and successful management company will tell you where we’re going.  Things have changed – and the implications are significant.  US Bank will discuss the challenges in the credit markets today and how to position yourself to improve your ability to access credit.  They’ll cover current rates and refinancing opportunities as well.  There is truly something in this event for everyone.  I’m not exaggerating when I say you won’t want to miss it.  Besides I’m springing for heavy appetizers and drinks to digest it all.  If you haven’t RSVP’d yet, please do so by email or call Sally Noel at 651-490-9790.  Remember this is a “bring a friend event – or two if you have them.”  They’ll get useful information and you can tell them that you’re providing refreshments — on me!

Sincerely,

 Donald J. Miller, CFP

LPL Registered Principal