The first few days of August for the stock market have represented a rapid flight from risk. The third-quarter bounce for the economy, driven by the tight consensus of investors three weeks ago, has now been completely rejected by the capital markets which have turned lower, despite the fact that earnings remain robust for Corporate America. The market has also ignored several recent, solid assessments of the economy, especially the recently released employment report, which showed a welcomed gain of 154,000 jobs being created in the private sector for July. The uncertainty of the European debt crisis and intense debate on the U.S. debt ceiling precludes any material hope of fiscal or monetary stimulus before the next election. This lack of policy actions has increased the perceived risk in the markets that is causing investors to flee. In a sense, “all news has been bad news” as of late.
European issues are challenging, but not a crisis. The news flow makes it sound like Europe is flailing about trying to throw more money at a growing problem. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s statement this week—that the downside risks to growth have intensified and that they will let banks borrow as much as they need—had an air of desperation to them. But, I do not believe the situation is nearly as bad as the headlines make it seem. The likelihood of a Greece-like situation developing is remote for the market’s next perceived “problem child”: Italy. Unlike in Greece, substantial spending cuts are already well underway in Italy. Italy has already cut government workers, raised revenue by eliminating some tax breaks, and sold government assets, which is moving the country on a credible path to fiscal sustainability. In fact, in 2010, Italy reduced its deficit-to-GDP ratio by nearly a percentage point and has a lesser debt burden than does the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
To be sure, some recent economic data has been disappointing, notably the downward revision of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and the July ISM Purchasing Managers’ Survey which showed elements of manufacturing activity down near contraction levels of 50. However, it has not been all bad of late as retail sales continue to post strong advances, weekly unemployment claims dropped back to the all-important 400,000 level, housing starts showed modest signs of improvement, and employment accelerated dramatically in July relative to the previous two months. The bottom line is that the economic data is mixed, but not terrible. We still see below-average growth on tap, as we forecasted for this year, but we do not see a double-dip recession on the horizon.
With bond yields falling as investors flock to the safe-haven of Treasuries and major stock market averages now down about 10% from the recent highs, this may seem all too familiar. It is natural to wonder about how recent economic conditions compare to those of 2008 and if the market is foreshadowing that another crisis is on tap. The message from the markets is important, but in last summer’s soft spot, bond yields dropped to similar levels seen today and the stock market fell 15%, but there was no recession. Instead, we got a second-half market rally as clarity improved and investor sentiment returned. In our opinion, the summer of 2010 is the more relevant comparison for what lies ahead for this market as opposed to the recessionary period of 2008-2009.
While there is much to be worried about, I believe that the market’s concern is overdone and it is pricing in a far greater likelihood for a return to recession than the data actually indicates. Stock valuations are cheap on both a trailing and forward basis versus their historical averages. The S&P 500 Index trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a measure for how much the market values a dollar’s worth of corporate earnings, is at 13 (the lowest since 1990) and the forward P/E ratio is 11 (same as the March 2009 low). Essentially, the market is as cheap or even cheaper now than it was during the depths of the 2008-2009 recession. While valuations could compress further, the spring is already tightly coiled. A solid earnings season suggests the market is too bearish with the price it is putting on earnings.
But, do not forget what turned last summer’s market malaise into a double-digit second half rally for stocks: improving economic data, strong corporate earnings, emerging clarity from Europe, and above all, a market that was just too cheap to pass up the attention of investors. The bottom line is that the market has a blind eye to good news given the bearish-colored glasses it has been wearing as of late. It is my opinion that volatility will remain elevated, but the market’s emotional sell off will soon transition to a rational assessment of improving economic fundamentals and attractive valuations.
The economic and market recovery is now well into its second year from the March 2009 lows and as any parent can vividly recall, this market “toddler” is just going through an old-fashioned “terrible twos” temper tantrum. But, market slides are where great buying opportunities are born and this will be no different. I believe that maintaining a cautious stance is prudent, but systematic additions to risk at these levels will prove a wise investment as the year unfolds. As always, if you have questions, I encourage you to contact me.
Sincerely,
Donald J. Miller, CFP / Registered Principal
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult me prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower P/E ratio.
Credit rating is an assessment of the credit worthiness of individuals and corporations. It is based upon the history of borrowing and repayment, as well as the availability of assets and extent of liabilities.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The ISM index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.
Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.
Tracking #751660 | (Exp.08/12)
U.S. Debt Rating Downgraded
August 10th, 2011 by bobbypAfter the market close on Friday, Standard and Poor’s (S&P)—one of the three major U.S. rating agencies—downgraded the U.S. government debt from AAA to AA+. This is actually a drop of less than one level within the S&P rating system. According to S&P, an obligor rated AAA has “extremely strong capacity to meet its financial commitments” while one of AA has “very strong capacity to meet its financial commitments” and differs from AAA obligors “only to a small degree.” Therefore, U.S. debt is still rated very strong. In addition, the two other major U.S. rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their highest ratings for U.S. federal debt. S&P kept the short-term rating of the United States at the top rating of A1+. Short-term money market instruments are rated on a different scale, but the status quo with respect to these ratings implies no impact to money market funds.
Since the first U.S. rating agency was established in the early 1900s, the U.S. government has not been downgraded. Frankly, a downgrade just sounds and feels bad. The word “downgrade” has similar negative connotations to words like “demotion” or “decline.” However, while this is the first time that the United States has been downgraded by a U.S. rating agency, it is not the first time that the United States has been downgraded. The United States was downgraded one level by China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating Company to A+ in November 2010 and by Germany’s Feri Rating Agency to AA in June 2011.
There is also much precedent for other AAA-rated sovereign nations seeing their debt downgraded. Japan lost its AAA rating in 1998 and Canada was downgraded in 1994—however, both successfully regained their AAA status at later dates. Japan lost its AAA status again in 2009. Though this downgrade feels unique and unprecedented, it has already happened relatively recently to the United States without much attention and to other sovereign nations in the past.
As investors, we need to take this downgrade as what it is—a change in status that does not meaningfully diminish the term “full faith and credit of the U.S. government.” In fact, the debt of the United States continues to be viewed as preeminently high quality. One measure of this is to examine the credit default swap market, which is similar to insurance that institutional investors can buy to protect their bonds in case of default. Even after the downgrade by S&P, the cost to “insure” against the default of the U.S. government is much lower than nearly every country in the world, including many AAA credits like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Therefore, even though U.S. debt does not still carry a full AAA rating, the market still views the U.S. government’s ability to meet its debt obligations as AAA worthy.
So, what does this all mean to the markets? S&P telegraphed their downgrade starting a couple of weeks ago while the debt ceiling debate was still ongoing. As a result, I believe that the markets have largely priced this downgrade news in. In addition, we have likely not seen the last of downgrades. Now that the United States has been downgraded, S&P will separately be reviewing government agencies and companies that rely heavily on U.S. government support—such as Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac—for potential changes in credit rating. That said, further downward price moves in the stock market are likely not attributable to the downgrade of U.S. debt, but rather escalating concerns around the European crisis and decelerating global economic growth. In a sense, the downgrade of U.S. debt is not nearly as important to the market as is the potential downshift in the strength of the global economic recovery.
While we have to acknowledge that the risks for a double-dip recession have been creeping up as of late, I continue to believe that it is extremely unlikely. The market appears to be pricing in a far greater likelihood for a return to recession than the data actually indicates. As a result, stock valuations are cheap versus historical averages. The S&P 500 Index trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a measure of how much the market values a dollar’s worth of corporate earnings, is at 13 (the lowest since 1990) and the forward P/E ratio is 11 (same as March 2009 low).Essentially, the market is as cheap, or even cheaper, now than it was during the depths of the 2008-2009 recession.
The visceral, emotional reactions to this downgrade are normal, but I believe that the S&P rating downgrade is more disappointing than it is material for capital markets. While the market may react emotionally to the news over the short run, rational analysis will soon reveal that continued favorable economic fundamentals and attractive valuations point to potentially promising investment opportunities just around the corner. I believe that maintaining a cautious stance remains prudent, but systematic additions to risk at these levels will prove a wise investment as the year unfolds. As always, if you have questions, I encourage you to contact me.
Best regards,
Donald J. Miller, CEO, CFP®
LPL Registered Principal
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult me prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
An obligation rated ‘AAA’ has the highest rating assigned by Standard & Poor’s. The obligor’s capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is extremely strong.
The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower P/E ratio.
Credit rating is an assessment of the credit worthiness of individuals and corporations. It is based upon the history of borrowing and repayment, as well as the availability of assets and extent of liabilities.
Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.
Tracking #786254 | (Exp.08/12)
Posted in Market Commentary